The Summer of LeBron? I thought it was supposed to be the Summer of Strasburg? Well, actually it was going to be the Summer of the World Cup, but then our team lost, so we don’t care anymore.
Last Thursday at midnight (or is it Wednesday at midnight? I thought a new day begins at midnight, but everybody says the day ends at midnight … I’m confused) started the inaudible clarion call on NBA Free Agency. With LeBron James being the big prize, and with consolation players the caliber of Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh – consider them, respectively, the Boardwalk and Park Place, the green and the yellow properties of NBA Monopoly – there has never been a sillier silly season in professional basketball history than the one we’re in right now. Homesteaders racing across Oklahoma don’t have as much zeal as owners and front-office brain wizards will this summer in stalking their claims.
While a free agency period with Amar’e Stoudemire or even Joe Johnson the best player available would be a credible one, we have to bypass D-Wade and Bosh to worry about King James, probably the most prized free agent in NBA history until the next best player opts out of his contract. Where will he go? Careers of writers and analysts are being made and/or extended trying to answer that question.
I’m pretty sure that, in the darkest, most protected recesses of his mind, James knows what he’s going to do, or at least he has a strong feeling. I don’t think he’s telling anybody his thoughts except for his family and inner circle, and there appears to be some disagreement about where his handlers think he should go. But I expect him to make up his mind before Sunday’s World Cup Final, unless he thinks Independence Weekend is the appropriate time to make the announcement of where he’s headed.
The Cavaliers have James’s Bird rights, and the Knicks, Bulls, Heat and Nets all have enough cash to pay him what he wants. (The Clippers have cap space too, but ha-ha, the Clippers!!!) Without having an inside source, I predict, from least to most likely, where LeBron James will go:
5) New Jersey. There are many exotic intangibles in the ownership suite (Russian playboy billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov and, of course, LBJ friend Jay-Z) and the ones with the money will have enough to pay James what he wants. And although he won’t be playing Madison Square Garden, the Nets’ impending move to Brooklyn should still get him on the New York spotlight.
But does he want it, especially with a new president (Rod Thorn will be leaving his post soon)? He should be partly assuaged by new coach Avery Johnson, but he was the one manning the sidelines for the Dallas Mavericks in 2007, when they were the 1-seed and lost to the Golden State Warriors in the first round. James seems to have had enough of exiting the playoffs early. And while they have completely blown up the roster so that LeBron can basically pick his own team, I just don’t think Jersey’s enticing enough of a place and organization to get the role players he would need to run this town. Besides, if you want to play in New York, why not actually play in. …
4) New York. The hopes of New Yorkers to expand their arrogance to a second sport have repeatedly been reciprocated in kind by James, who eschews the Cleveland Indians’ cap for the damned “NY” of the Yankees. It’s the greatest city in the nation and quite possibly the world, and it’ll be his oyster if he signs there. An even better reason is percolating this weekend: Amar’e Stoudemire appears willing to be the first free agent to actually jump ship, leaving the Phoenix Suns for the Knicks. That’s the complement, the Scottie Pippen, James wants in order to win championships. But, some reporters say, that will happen only if James signs with New York, too.
While the Knicks seem in prime position to get at least someone to fill one of their maximum-cap slots, all other indications seem to point to New York, a franchise that essentially threw away the past two years just for this free agent summer, coming up short. First of all, the belief of many that he could increase his off-the-court endorsement money geometrically is false. He’s a global icon right now; playing for Cleveland isn’t hampering him one bit. What exactly could the difference of playing in Manhattan be – the Official Dry Cleaning Service of the Knicks pays more? If he wants to live it up in New York, he can fly to one of the properties he allegedly looked at whenever the hell he wants.
Also, the shambles the Knicks have made themselves may be so unsalvageable for even him to put back together. If David Lee, the hustling low post defender that Stoudemire will not be, leaves for another team, LeBron essentially is back where he was with the Cavs. And then the New York media, eager to turn their back on any loser superstar no matter how talented, will vilify him so much that Alex Rodriguez will send James the number of his therapist. Finally, there are reports that the Knicks failed in their presentation to LeBron and his business partners on Friday – unprofessional and disorganized, according to Yahoo! Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski. Final straw?
If you asked me just after the season where James would be, I would have said New York; now, they’re nearly as low on this list as they usually are in the Atlantic Division, despite the reported $1 billion he could make as a brand in New York, even despite the fact that the club’s representatives met with James’s people a second time Saturday, according to Frank Isola of the New York Daily News.
3) Chicago. The Bulls have the most system-ready roster of the five candidates and the one with the most growth potential for the next several years, with Derrick Rose on point and Joakim Noah on the block. Many of the pieces are set for LeBron, and even though many people think he wants a part in assembling the roster, if the pieces already there are this good, that’s one less burden he has to carry. And they then can go after someone willing to take on less than the maximum – maybe Carlos Boozer, or even Bosh, depending on how desperate he’s willing to give up money in order to leave Toronto.
The other burden, however, the one that has a statue outside the United Center, is something that may be foisted upon him no matter how much he shies away from it. Unless LBJ wins, like, 10 NBA titles, he will be viewed as only the second-best Bull in franchise history. James had the misfortune of having his golden path paved by Michael Jordan. Jordan transcended the game. Jordan is the one that turned athletes into pop culture celebrities. James could surpass Jordan’s legacy, but that’s a tall order, and even then he will hold a permanent debt of gratitude for the one who made it all possible.
Other factors have to be included. Does James and his entourage trust Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf to spend as much as allowable, and maybe even then some, to win? Wade leaving the Heat for his hometown of Chicago could be the clincher, but would he sign for less than the maximum, if it comes to that? One deafening sound of silence: No buzz after the club’s meeting with James.
2) Miami. Heat President Pat Riley is the key. Not only does he seem to have Wade’s unconditional loyalty, which would make him skipping out for the Bulls highly unlikely, he appears to have the respect of James. And the tax breaks of being located in a no-income-tax state could make it easier for players to sign for just less than the max – someone like Bosh. That’s why the possibility of a James-Wade-Bosh troika is the most plausible here, especially if Riley releases Erik Spoelstra and takes over as coach to ensure they all come to Miami, a sleazy move similar to the way he screwed Stan Van Gundy.
However, the Heat don’t have the role players the Bulls have. Moreover, you can say both players are basically the same guy – classmates of the same draft that want to be the #1 on their team and work from the perimeter. It’d be awesome to see if LBJ and D-Wade could co-exist together … or it could turn into an awesome disaster. Does this matter to James’s desire to be a champion?
1) Cleveland. Last month I would’ve said he was as good as gone because the roster that was supposed to support him failed him short of the NBA Finals again. The analogue to James’s situation is Kevin Garnett. The Minnesota Timberwolves did all they could to get the right mix of players around him, and with one exception, when they got Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell and went all the way to the Western Conference Finals, Garnett’s brilliance was wasted on mediocre players. The Wolves were forced to blow up the whole thing and ship KG to Boston; he was one quarter away from winning a title for the second title in three years with the Celtics.
That has to weigh on LeBron’s mind, or at least should. But there are too many talking heads who think he likes it very much in Akron and with the Cavaliers. It flies in the face of good sense for him to stay when he could come back to his palatial estate whenever he wanted. But my belief is that he’s going to kick the can of “Will he stay or will he go?” down the curb, sort of and just for a little bit.
He will re-sign with Cleveland, but only for a relatively short deal – three or four years at the max. And he will extract from Cavs owner Dan Gilbert and new General Manager Chris Grant the promise to do what it takes to get the right supporting cast so they can finally win a championship for him and this beleaguered city. I think Bosh would come to Cleveland under this scenario.
That’s probably the best way to come out of this win-win. One final all-in push to get a title for the team he grew up watching, the organization that drafted him first overall. If they do win, great. If they don’t win, that’s the point where LeBron can go to the people of Cleveland and say, “Look, I tried it one more time, and it’s just not happening. I’ve given all I could to you guys. Please understand that I want to win a championship while I can still contribute, and I hope you forgive me as I move on. You will always have a place in my heart …” yadda-yadda-yadda.
After all the buildup that we could see coming 24 months away, it would be incredibly underwhelming to see the biggest fish in the sea swim back home. But then, if he does indeed leave, this LeBronathon becomes LeBronaggedon. Then, all bets are off. And every sports head with a Twitter account will be chatting like girls in high school study hall gossiping about what’ll happen next.