College Football's Stretch Run

All this talk about who will compete for the Mythical National Championship game always comes prematurely.  Hell, we’re about a month away from the announcement of the BcS exhibition pairings, so even this article qualifies as counting chickens before they’ve hatched.  But I always think that we can at least start dissecting the conference races and dreaming about matchups once we get into November.  And here we are, so let’s break down the BcS conferences from east to west:

Big East: While Cincinnati has seemed to capture the attention of every fan and pundit when they talk about this conference, they share the lead with Pittsburgh at 4-0.  Assuming they win out, the final day of the regular season, December 5, will be for the Big East title and a spot in the BcS when the Bearcats go to Heinz Field to take on the Panthers.  But also lurking is West Virginia, which also holds its fate in its own hands.  The Mountaineers visit Cincy on the 13^th and host Pitt for the Backyard Brawl the day after Thanksgiving.  Win those two and WVU is in the BcS for the second time in three years.

ACC: In the Atlantic Division, quite possibly the most inconsistent program the last decade, Clemson, has the inside track of getting to the conference championship game.  Right now the Tigers are tied with Boston College with matching mediocre 3-2 records, but they beat the Eagles on September 19.  Embattled Florida St. also lurks; the Seminoles are a game behind and already lost to B.C. October 3, but they travel to Clemson to throw down this Saturday night.  In the Coastal Division (where not all of the teams are situated on the coast, by the way), Georgia Tech has the same number of losses as, of all teams, Duke (one).  If the Blue Devils defeat the Yellow Jackets at home next week, let alone survive road tilts versus North Carolina this week and Miami two weeks from now, they will enjoy their first shot at winning the conference since Steve Spurrier was on the upside of his coaching career 20 years ago.  Win that and they get to go … to a BcS game, though not the Mythical National Championship game.

SEC: Florida and Alabama have been on a collision course to December 5 longer than Harry Potter and Voldemort.  But if there’s going to be an upset somewhere in College Football Nation – and there always seems to be some in Naughty November, I pray to God, Buddha, Allah, et al. – it’ll start Saturday when LSU visits Alabama.  The Tigers stalk a game behind the Crimson Tide, and a win here means they can run the table, clash with the Gators for the conference championship, and ruin all this ‘Bama/Florida, “SEC Championship Game=BcS Championship Game” talk that’s been raging ever since the season began.  If the Tide win, expect many conference games that are purportedly de facto playoff games (according to BcS ass-kissers) to become virtually meaningless.

Big 10: Iowa’s the lead dog at 5-0, but they’ve been living on the edge by needing to come back in every single conference game they’ve played.  Win and they go undefeated for the first time since 1922 and get to go to the Rose Bowl … the one year when the Rose Bowl is played before the BcS Championship Game.  But the team that could really make hay this November is Ohio St., who travel to Penn St. for sole possession of second place in the conference this Saturday, then could tie for first when they host the Hawkeyes next Saturday.  By the way, Ohio St.-Michigan is irrelevant for the second straight year.

Big 12: Texas remains a unanimous yet somewhat nebulous BcS Mythical National Championship Game contender.  The Longhorns have practically sewn up the South Division, but don’t you get the feeling they’ll be tripped up somewhere, even with the prison sex they supplied to Oklahoma St. last week?  Could it happen against QB Todd Reesing and Kansas on the 21^st?  Maybe it’ll be schizophrenic Texas A&M Thanksgiving night?  Or could the Big 12 Championship Game offer another of its patented upsets and see Texas be denied a shot at the BcS at the hands of the North Division winner, which is in yet another hold-your-nose season?  The leaders in that race are Kansas St. and Nebraska; they meet to presumably get beat down by Texas for all the marbles on the 21^st.

Pac-10: With its throttling of USC last week, Oregon, whose Mythical National Championship dreams were dashed after its first game, has driver’s-seat status on the way to a spot in the Rose Bowl … but not a shot at the BcS final, even though they probably can stand toe-to-toe with Florida, Texas or Alabama.  Right now they can’t afford to fall victim to the trap game this week at Stanford.  The other team vying for the conference crown?  Not USC – Arizona.  The Wildcats’ remaining schedule is fraught with peril (Cal, USC and Arizona St. on the road), but they do get the Ducks at home on the 21^st.  Get by them and ‘Zona can go to Pasadena to play on January 1 for the first time ever.

Schools From Non-BcS Conferences That Are Eligible To Fill The BcS’s Non-BcS School Quota BcS Busters: Historically, teams from non-AQ (that stands for Automatic Qualifier, the preferred parlance of the overlords of the BcS) conferences appear to slip up less often than those in the BcS Six.  TCU and Boise St.’s toughest remaining games both come next week: The Horned Frogs host Utah, which is undefeated in the MWC; The Broncos welcome upstarts Idaho to the blue turf (although a home game against Nevada, also unbeaten in the WAC, could be just as monumental the day after Thanksgiving).  Win out and they both can say they deserve a shot at the BcS.  Sadly, only one of them will be allowed to, and it sure as hell won’t be the BcS Mythical National Championship.  Non-BcS haters can chant “schedule” at these two till they’re blue in the face, but these programs have been consistently successful for several years now.  Plus, they are doing what only five other teams are accomplishing right now: Winning every game on their schedule.  Teams playing schedules hard and soft haven’t able to do that.  And isn’t anybody the least bit interested to see if, for example, Boise St. or TCU’s defense can handle Tim Tebow and the Gators’ spread offense in a BcS Title Game?

One final question to ask.  Many of you think the questions and scenarios this point in a college football season is what makes the sport so much fun to watch.  But re-read my long post … except replace the initials “BcS” with the word “playoff.” Now how awesome would college football be?  Exactly!

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